classified 79
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-03
Realized PnL
$1,081,435
Months in profit
18 / 20
Win rate (events)
58%
ROI per market
1.3%
Avg stake
$86,944
Median hold
30.5 d
Volume
$44,007,181
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-01-10); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
geopolitics 671 esports 102 other 101 macro 62 politics 37 crypto 13
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (93)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 87473 | 0.68 | 0.87 | $76,408 | $17,300 | geopolitics |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | 23236 | 0.97 | 0.99 | $22,992 | $470 | geopolitics |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | No | 23257 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $22,455 | $366 | politics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 32008 | 0.41 | 0.46 | $14,724 | $1,747 | geopolitics |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 16990 | 0.91 | 0.84 | $14,331 | −$1,080 | other |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 12609 | 0.98 | 0.99 | $12,476 | $92 | other |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | No | 14287 | 0.79 | 0.81 | $11,644 | $294 | esports |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 13298 | 0.84 | 0.88 | $11,636 | $453 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 12416 | 0.93 | 0.89 | $11,044 | −$498 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 10777 | 0.99 | 0.98 | $10,610 | −$29 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | Yes | 11989 | 0.86 | 0.83 | $10,011 | −$300 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 8658 | 0.88 | 0.94 | $8,139 | $539 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes | 11923 | 0.70 | 0.67 | $7,988 | −$416 | geopolitics |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | 14599 | 0.46 | 0.47 | $6,935 | $277 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 35126 | 0.19 | 0.20 | $6,850 | $344 | geopolitics |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | Yes | 57908 | 0.03 | 0.12 | $6,833 | $5,043 | politics |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 7001 | 0.94 | 0.98 | $6,833 | $261 | other |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | No | 5954 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $5,674 | −$70 | politics |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 7387 | 0.70 | 0.69 | $5,134 | −$58 | geopolitics |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 42368 | 0.21 | 0.12 | $4,872 | −$3,999 | geopolitics |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 5344 | 0.93 | 0.91 | $4,852 | −$99 | other |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 4334 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $4,220 | $34 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 31970 | 0.06 | 0.13 | $4,156 | $2,181 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | 6114 | 0.66 | 0.66 | $4,005 | −$42 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 7000 | 0.57 | 0.56 | $3,955 | −$50 | geopolitics |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 10000 | 0.38 | 0.38 | $3,750 | −$50 | politics |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | No | 3754 | 0.96 | 0.98 | $3,696 | $103 | politics |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 15718 | 0.21 | 0.23 | $3,623 | $382 | esports |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | No | 14374 | 0.21 | 0.23 | $3,234 | $148 | geopolitics |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 4300 | 0.62 | 0.61 | $2,645 | −$3 | geopolitics |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? | No | 2513 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $2,400 | $25 | geopolitics |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate? | No | 2324 | 0.97 | 0.96 | $2,228 | −$18 | politics |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 2102 | 0.99 | 0.98 | $2,057 | −$15 | geopolitics |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 1980 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $1,922 | $3 | geopolitics |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 2000 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $1,908 | −$10 | politics |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 1895 | 0.99 | 0.99 | $1,877 | $5 | other |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | Yes | 11999 | 0.08 | 0.14 | $1,740 | $823 | geopolitics |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 9481 | 0.13 | 0.14 | $1,280 | $94 | other |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | No | 52550 | 0.06 | 0.02 | $1,156 | −$1,820 | geopolitics |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? | Yes | 19369 | 0.04 | 0.06 | $1,104 | $310 | politics |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m ago | SELL | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 0.47 | $28 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $338 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $33 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.26 | $0 |
| 9h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $99 |
| 9h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $99 |
| 9h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $25 |
| 11h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $2 |
| 12h ago | SELL | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.26 | $44 |
| 15h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $38 |
| 18h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $860 |
| 18h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $879 |
| 18h ago | SELL | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 0.97 | $44 |
| 19h ago | SELL | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 0.46 | $130 |
| 19h ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 19h ago | SELL | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 0.46 | $46 |
| 19h ago | SELL | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes | 0.46 | $290 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 0.12 | $1 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $17 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $10 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $20 |
| 21h ago | SELL | Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.26 | $50 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $36 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $31 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $36 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $48 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $38 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $8 |
| 21h ago | SELL | Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 0.13 | $163 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $20 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $4 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $2 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $17 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $2 |
| 21h ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 0.05 | $12 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 0.12 | $2 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 0.12 | $5 |
| 22h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $20 |
| 22h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 0.20 | $16 |