Olcan 82
0x355e5ae20cc1a3a2164f818e4bac8d22dd72a038 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-06
Realized PnL
$43,889
Months in profit
15 / 17
Win rate (events)
73%
ROI per market
5.0%
Avg stake
$490
Median hold
26.5 d
Volume
$1,333,070
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-06-20); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 406 sports 275 tech 139 macro 103 geopolitics 42 crypto 23
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51m ago | Olcan | BUY | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 0.59 | $24 | tech |
| 66m ago | Olcan | BUY | Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.81 | $73 | macro |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 4234 | 0.47 | 0.58 | $2,455 | $486 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 2119 | 0.65 | 0.78 | $1,653 | $272 | other |
| Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October? | Yes | 1228 | 0.92 | 0.98 | $1,208 | $83 | other |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | No | 1240 | 0.75 | 0.94 | $1,171 | $246 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 1470 | 0.71 | 0.80 | $1,169 | $119 | tech |
| Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | No | 1854 | 0.61 | 0.61 | $1,131 | −$5 | tech |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | No | 1150 | 0.86 | 0.96 | $1,101 | $111 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 1278 | 0.83 | 0.86 | $1,099 | $39 | other |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 1148 | 0.92 | 0.94 | $1,074 | $14 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 1172 | 0.79 | 0.88 | $1,031 | $107 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 1120 | 0.87 | 0.91 | $1,014 | $38 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 1013 | 0.87 | 0.97 | $978 | $94 | tech |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 1031 | 0.73 | 0.92 | $952 | $199 | other |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31? | No | 987 | 0.81 | 0.92 | $908 | $113 | other |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? | No | 1656 | 0.71 | 0.51 | $851 | −$327 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 1177 | 0.59 | 0.67 | $783 | $90 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 828 | 0.69 | 0.90 | $745 | $174 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? | No | 795 | 0.90 | 0.93 | $740 | $22 | tech |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | No | 767 | 0.76 | 0.89 | $678 | $94 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 1014 | 0.54 | 0.65 | $654 | $107 | tech |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? | No | 651 | 0.85 | 0.94 | $612 | $59 | macro |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 637 | 0.91 | 0.94 | $601 | $20 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 694 | 0.66 | 0.86 | $597 | $136 | tech |
| Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? | No | 680 | 0.77 | 0.86 | $589 | $67 | other |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 661 | 0.77 | 0.89 | $588 | $76 | other |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31? | No | 903 | 0.68 | 0.65 | $587 | −$30 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 629 | 0.89 | 0.92 | $579 | $22 | tech |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 1487 | 0.39 | 0.39 | $574 | −$10 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 616 | 0.90 | 0.92 | $567 | $12 | other |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 661 | 0.52 | 0.84 | $558 | $212 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher? | No | 576 | 0.89 | 0.94 | $543 | $30 | other |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 863 | 0.69 | 0.62 | $535 | −$61 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 578 | 0.90 | 0.92 | $532 | $11 | tech |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 816 | 0.51 | 0.64 | $522 | $106 | tech |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 65% or higher? | No | 570 | 0.85 | 0.90 | $510 | $25 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 554 | 0.85 | 0.91 | $504 | $34 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 543 | 0.80 | 0.91 | $492 | $58 | other |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | No | 504 | 0.87 | 0.97 | $489 | $51 | other |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 514 | 0.75 | 0.93 | $478 | $92 | crypto |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? | No | 513 | 0.87 | 0.93 | $477 | $32 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19m ago | SELL | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.71 | $71 |
| 25m ago | SELL | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31? | Yes | 0.79 | $24 |
| 28m ago | BUY | Will Meta say "Muse" 10+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 0.87 | $89 |
| 33m ago | SELL | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 0.40 | $8 |
| 43m ago | SELL | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | Yes | 0.55 | $23 |
| 51m ago | BUY | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 0.59 | $24 |
| 54m ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.46 | $1 |
| 54m ago | BUY | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.70 | $70 |
| 56m ago | SELL | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24? | Yes | 0.83 | $12 |
| 64m ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.46 | $9 |
| 66m ago | BUY | Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.81 | $73 |
| 2h ago | SELL | Will Zohran Mamdani say "School" during his next livestream? | Yes | 0.80 | $40 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Netflix say "SI" / "Super Intelligence" during earnings call? | Yes | 0.24 | $2 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.46 | $23 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.45 | $12 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.20 | $0 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.20 | $15 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.45 | $4 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference? | Yes | 0.42 | $24 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.80 | $16 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.80 | $17 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.80 | $47 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Netflix say "SI" / "Super Intelligence" during earnings call? | Yes | 0.18 | $9 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Netflix say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during earnings call? | No | 0.24 | $24 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Tesla say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times during earnings call? | No | 0.14 | $7 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Meta say "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" 30+ times during earnings call? | No | 0.16 | $9 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Meta say "Muse" 10+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 0.86 | $43 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.45 | $29 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 24? | Yes | 0.83 | $4 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.71 | $71 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.49 | $47 |
| 7h ago | SELL | Will Tesla say "Texas" during earnings call? | Yes | 0.84 | $1 |
| 7h ago | SELL | Will Tesla say "Texas" during earnings call? | Yes | 0.84 | $31 |
| 7h ago | SELL | Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by October 31? | No | 0.94 | $5 |
| 7h ago | SELL | Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | No | 0.93 | $168 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | Yes | 0.55 | $3 |
| 8h ago | SELL | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | Yes | 0.55 | $11 |
| 9h ago | SELL | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | Yes | 0.55 | $28 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.20 | $1 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? | No | 0.20 | $1 |