paddaa 78
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-07
Realized PnL
$271,807
Months in profit
14 / 16
Win rate (events)
57%
ROI per market
2.6%
Avg stake
$7,236
Median hold
47.3 d
Volume
$8,109,975
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-05-16); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
geopolitics 422 other 325 esports 175 politics 38 macro 17 crypto 14
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h ago | paddaa | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $54 | other |
| 23h ago | paddaa | BUY | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | Yes | 0.78 | $1,000 | geopolitics |
| 27h ago | paddaa | SELL | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | No | 0.12 | $587 | other |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | No | 18211 | 0.68 | 0.64 | $11,564 | −$752 | politics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 16872 | 0.57 | 0.54 | $9,111 | −$524 | geopolitics |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 10548 | 0.62 | 0.75 | $7,911 | $1,408 | crypto |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 8677 | 0.69 | 0.73 | $6,335 | $335 | politics |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | No | 11623 | 0.43 | 0.55 | $6,335 | $1,352 | other |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 9524 | 0.63 | 0.65 | $6,143 | $143 | politics |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 9375 | 0.64 | 0.64 | $5,953 | −$47 | esports |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 5484 | 0.86 | 0.88 | $4,826 | $131 | geopolitics |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? | No | 6876 | 0.65 | 0.69 | $4,734 | $251 | politics |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 6627 | 0.65 | 0.63 | $4,142 | −$144 | esports |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 4748 | 0.86 | 0.85 | $4,059 | −$13 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | No | 11119 | 0.33 | 0.36 | $4,058 | $418 | geopolitics |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 9738 | 0.32 | 0.40 | $3,846 | $727 | geopolitics |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 4468 | 0.75 | 0.81 | $3,597 | $228 | geopolitics |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 3935 | 0.76 | 0.81 | $3,207 | $199 | other |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 3348 | 0.85 | 0.86 | $2,896 | $39 | other |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 4282 | 0.54 | 0.56 | $2,419 | $104 | other |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | No | 3397 | 0.65 | 0.54 | $1,834 | −$366 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 6293 | 0.27 | 0.27 | $1,699 | −$1 | geopolitics |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 1949 | 0.87 | 0.86 | $1,686 | −$7 | geopolitics |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | Yes | 2495 | 0.10 | 0.58 | $1,452 | $1,210 | geopolitics |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | Yes | 2202 | 0.21 | 0.65 | $1,434 | $963 | geopolitics |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 6685 | 0.36 | 0.17 | $1,170 | −$1,215 | other |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Yes | 10733 | 0.16 | 0.10 | $1,127 | −$571 | geopolitics |
| Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats? | No | 2557 | 0.31 | 0.34 | $857 | $68 | politics |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 5346 | 0.01 | 0.15 | $829 | $778 | other |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? | No | 2369 | 0.17 | 0.34 | $817 | $412 | other |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? | Yes | 1892 | 0.43 | 0.36 | $690 | −$126 | esports |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | No | 5278 | 0.46 | 0.13 | $686 | −$1,767 | politics |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30? | No | 2966 | 0.31 | 0.23 | $682 | −$237 | geopolitics |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 7128 | 0.14 | 0.10 | $677 | −$290 | other |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 6052 | 0.02 | 0.09 | $557 | $438 | politics |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 5751 | 0.02 | 0.08 | $477 | $364 | politics |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2764 | 0.21 | 0.17 | $456 | −$133 | geopolitics |
| Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election? | No | 1805 | 0.52 | 0.21 | $388 | −$553 | esports |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4907 | 0.03 | 0.08 | $388 | $244 | geopolitics |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Yes | 2877 | 0.15 | 0.13 | $368 | −$61 | geopolitics |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2353 | 0.17 | 0.15 | $365 | −$35 | tech |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate? | Yes | 3753 | 0.02 | 0.09 | $319 | $245 | politics |
| Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 5346 | 0.01 | 0.06 | $302 | $251 | crypto |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66m ago | SELL | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | No | 0.59 | $266 |
| 85m ago | SELL | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | Yes | 0.20 | $395 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.38 | $242 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.38 | $1 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.38 | $3 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.38 | $58 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.35 | $407 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.33 | $5 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.57 | $2,178 |
| 3h ago | SELL | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.56 | $1,221 |
| 4h ago | SELL | Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 0.87 | $7 |
| 7h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $74 |
| 7h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $2 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $11 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $22 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $0 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $17 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $54 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.47 | $3,999 |
| 16h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | No | 0.08 | $200 |
| 16h ago | SELL | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.78 | $3,475 |
| 17h ago | BUY | Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by December 31? | No | 0.67 | $620 |
| 21h ago | SELL | Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 0.30 | $125 |
| 21h ago | SELL | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.34 | $1,085 |
| 22h ago | SELL | Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 0.87 | $709 |
| 22h ago | BUY | Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary? | No | 0.95 | $2,300 |
| 22h ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | No | 0.37 | $1,700 |
| 22h ago | SELL | Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 0.24 | $235 |
| 22h ago | SELL | Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 0.26 | $468 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 0.25 | $395 |
| 23h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.79 | $2,000 |
| 23h ago | SELL | Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.86 | $1,211 |
| 23h ago | BUY | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | Yes | 0.78 | $1,000 |
| 24h ago | SELL | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 0.26 | $443 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.87 | $1,700 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.14 | $126 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 0.23 | $900 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 0.31 | $3,400 |
| 24h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | Yes | 0.74 | $230 |
| 24h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | Yes | 0.79 | $230 |