wish- 78
0x72a22d4d155079da8f50c89d4c6c03b6428e7b65 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2022-11
Realized PnL
$74,447
Months in profit
11 / 14
Win rate (events)
82%
ROI per market
-0.0%
Avg stake
$12,080
Median hold
28.1 d
Volume
$15,239,677
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-04-01); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 305 geopolitics 221 crypto 202 tech 77 esports 59 politics 48
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | wish- | BUY | Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 0.96 | $2,395 | politics |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 19935 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $19,018 | $199 | politics |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | 13500 | 0.99 | 1.00 | $13,439 | $109 | other |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 10765 | 0.98 | 0.99 | $10,663 | $157 | esports |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 11000 | 0.96 | 0.96 | $10,532 | −$13 | other |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 11000 | 0.91 | 0.95 | $10,505 | $472 | geopolitics |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 8000 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $7,788 | $149 | other |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 7000 | 0.83 | 0.85 | $5,985 | $176 | geopolitics |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 6132 | 0.90 | 0.86 | $5,304 | −$212 | other |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 5433 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $5,284 | $33 | politics |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 5000 | 1.00 | 1.00 | $4,983 | $3 | macro |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 4591 | 0.84 | 0.92 | $4,201 | $353 | esports |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 4000 | 0.90 | 0.92 | $3,660 | $50 | esports |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 3907 | 0.88 | 0.92 | $3,575 | $152 | politics |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4000 | 0.85 | 0.77 | $3,078 | −$325 | esports |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 3126 | 0.95 | 0.97 | $3,031 | $61 | crypto |
| Will The Odyssey rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? | Yes | 3155 | 0.90 | 0.94 | $2,950 | $107 | culture |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 2500 | 0.96 | 0.98 | $2,463 | $58 | other |
| Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? | Yes | 2694 | 0.88 | 0.86 | $2,330 | −$38 | culture |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 2442 | 0.94 | 0.95 | $2,317 | $14 | other |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 2204 | 0.95 | 0.98 | $2,156 | $57 | geopolitics |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 3025 | 0.79 | 0.65 | $1,951 | −$432 | esports |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 2042 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $1,949 | −$16 | macro |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 2000 | 0.95 | 0.96 | $1,927 | $21 | esports |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 2000 | 0.92 | 0.93 | $1,850 | $4 | other |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 1825 | 0.96 | 0.98 | $1,784 | $31 | other |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 1885 | 0.93 | 0.94 | $1,773 | $27 | geopolitics |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2200 | 0.77 | 0.73 | $1,617 | −$83 | politics |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 1500 | 0.98 | 1.00 | $1,495 | $20 | geopolitics |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 1600 | 0.88 | 0.93 | $1,480 | $70 | other |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3548 | 0.56 | 0.40 | $1,409 | −$588 | geopolitics |
| Will Lindsay Clancy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People in the US of 2026? | Yes | 1771 | 0.74 | 0.77 | $1,363 | $57 | other |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 1800 | 0.70 | 0.71 | $1,278 | $20 | politics |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 1256 | 0.94 | 0.96 | $1,202 | $27 | culture |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 1200 | 0.88 | 0.95 | $1,146 | $86 | geopolitics |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 1162 | 0.83 | 0.94 | $1,087 | $126 | crypto |
| Macron out by December 31, 2026? | No | 1102 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $1,050 | $26 | other |
| Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 1000 | 0.99 | 1.00 | $997 | $7 | other |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 7284 | 0.31 | 0.14 | $983 | −$1,309 | other |
| Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? | No | 950 | 0.93 | 0.98 | $933 | $50 | macro |
| Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1341 | 0.73 | 0.69 | $932 | −$53 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21m ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $10 |
| 21m ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $10 |
| 21m ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $1 |
| 21m ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $1 |
| 83m ago | SELL | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.85 | $610 |
| 83m ago | SELL | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.85 | $240 |
| 2h ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.42 | $335 |
| 2h ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.42 | $40 |
| 2h ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.42 | $187 |
| 2h ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.42 | $186 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $983 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.64 | $256 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $13 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 0.96 | $2,390 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $3 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $10 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $59 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $41 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.66 | $6 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 0.70 | $140 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 0.70 | $700 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.93 | $17 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.93 | $960 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $77 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $8 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.93 | $19 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $48 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $37 |
| 5h ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.68 | $513 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.93 | $133 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 0.71 | $142 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.65 | $114 |
| 5h ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.68 | $33 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.93 | $618 |
| 5h ago | SELL | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 0.68 | $12 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $808 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $486 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $25 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $418 |
| 8h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $566 |