Renan2030 80
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2026-02
Realized PnL
$710,865
Months in profit
6 / 9
Win rate (events)
81%
ROI per market
12.2%
Avg stake
$17,614
Median hold
10.3 d
Volume
$11,635,417
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 448 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-02-28); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
geopolitics 190 sports 76 esports 70 crypto 57 other 45 politics 8
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h ago | Renan2030 | BUY | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | Yes | 0.69 | $4,962 | esports |
Open positions (53)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 603151 | 0.65 | 0.77 | $464,125 | $73,718 | esports |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 287057 | 0.78 | 0.78 | $222,470 | −$2,639 | esports |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 165412 | 0.85 | 0.88 | $144,735 | $4,289 | geopolitics |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 102381 | 0.83 | 0.84 | $86,000 | $1,487 | other |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 53525 | 0.93 | 0.98 | $52,347 | $2,514 | geopolitics |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | Yes | 22579 | 0.77 | 0.74 | $16,709 | −$602 | esports |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 8255 | 0.97 | 0.99 | $8,156 | $179 | geopolitics |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 6825 | 0.85 | 0.90 | $6,108 | $303 | other |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | No | 6709 | 0.81 | 0.75 | $5,032 | −$415 | geopolitics |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará? | Yes | 4480 | 0.76 | 0.84 | $3,764 | $337 | esports |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | Yes | 6515 | 0.39 | 0.33 | $2,117 | −$436 | esports |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October? | No | 2257 | 0.89 | 0.86 | $1,941 | −$69 | crypto |
| Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election? | Yes | 1253 | 0.73 | 0.78 | $978 | $63 | esports |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 714 | 0.81 | 0.94 | $667 | $88 | geopolitics |
| Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? | Yes | 399 | 0.91 | 0.90 | $357 | −$6 | esports |
| Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election? | No | 165 | 0.70 | 0.80 | $132 | $16 | esports |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever? | Yes | 208 | 0.83 | 0.59 | $123 | −$48 | esports |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | Yes | 30 | 0.44 | 0.68 | $20 | $7 | esports |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | Yes | 28 | 0.68 | 0.34 | $9 | −$10 | esports |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 792682 | 0.03 | 0.00 | $0 | −$26,793 | geopolitics |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 60745 | 0.34 | 0.00 | $0 | −$20,945 | geopolitics |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | No | 56307 | 0.79 | 0.00 | $0 | −$44,369 | crypto |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 21002 | 0.93 | 0.00 | $0 | −$19,522 | sports |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 20838 | 0.80 | 0.00 | $0 | −$16,749 | geopolitics |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | Yes | 18481 | 0.52 | 0.00 | $0 | −$9,685 | esports |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | Yes | 17473 | 0.85 | 0.00 | $0 | −$14,911 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | Yes | 16294 | 0.55 | 0.00 | $0 | −$8,950 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? | Yes | 13214 | 0.79 | 0.00 | $0 | −$10,381 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? | Yes | 11906 | 0.69 | 0.00 | $0 | −$8,222 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? | Yes | 11455 | 0.83 | 0.00 | $0 | −$9,469 | geopolitics |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants | Pittsburgh Pirates | 10384 | 0.88 | 0.00 | $0 | −$9,144 | sports |
| Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round? | Yes | 8263 | 0.93 | 0.00 | $0 | −$7,691 | other |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | No | 5632 | 0.88 | 0.00 | $0 | −$4,963 | geopolitics |
| 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 | Over | 4634 | 0.92 | 0.00 | $0 | −$4,261 | sports |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | No | 4591 | 0.86 | 0.00 | $0 | −$3,945 | crypto |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 3775 | 0.62 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,351 | esports |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? | Yes | 3242 | 0.58 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,888 | geopolitics |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July? | No | 2654 | 0.86 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,278 | crypto |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | No | 2465 | 0.72 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,782 | geopolitics |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | No | 1968 | 0.93 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,823 | crypto |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | Yes | 0.73 | $420 |
| 2h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.99 | $197 |
| 3h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.99 | $20 |
| 3h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.99 | $254 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | Yes | 0.69 | $4,962 |
| 5h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 0.95 | $4,524 |
| 5h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.99 | $500 |
| 39h ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.98 | $2,600 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $100 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $40 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $612 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $40 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $1,124 |
| 42h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $674 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.97 | $102 |
| 43h ago | SELL | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $100 |
| 44h ago | BUY | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará? | Yes | 0.75 | $2,185 |
| 44h ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 0.80 | $10,000 |
| 44h ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.97 | $5,167 |
| 44h ago | SELL | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 1.00 | $17,456 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.97 | $553 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election? | Yes | 0.87 | $119 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election? | Yes | 0.84 | $146 |
| 2d ago | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 0.82 | $820 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.93 | $131 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 0.82 | $131 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.92 | $243 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 0.81 | $243 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.93 | $510 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 0.82 | $329 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.91 | $19 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 0.77 | $13,110 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | Yes | 1.00 | $1,209 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 0.80 | $7,603 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 0.80 | $20,000 |
| 5d ago | BUY | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21? | Yes | 0.98 | $3,200 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 1.00 | $2,164 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 0.77 | $7,229 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | Yes | 0.95 | $525 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 1.00 | $7,826 |