The-Joker 75
0x9aeb534c42b58b21673d5e03e9da14fbd15b2729 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-10
Realized PnL
$149,222
Months in profit
10 / 13
Win rate (events)
64%
ROI per market
1.8%
Avg stake
$3,914
Median hold
21.2 d
Volume
$5,618,045
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 999 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-05-31); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
culture 225 sports 203 other 167 tech 151 geopolitics 90 esports 47
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h ago | The-Joker | BUY | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5 | Over | 0.47 | $2,347 | sports |
| 20h ago | The-Joker | BUY | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.55 | $135 | other |
| 25h ago | The-Joker | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 0.37 | $1,186 | geopolitics |
Open positions (40)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 30000 | 0.86 | 0.86 | $25,950 | $150 | macro |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 20000 | 0.58 | 0.63 | $12,500 | $900 | esports |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 13776 | 0.65 | 0.78 | $10,807 | $1,849 | other |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 13514 | 0.64 | 0.64 | $8,581 | −$68 | politics |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 9788 | 0.74 | 0.83 | $8,173 | $926 | crypto |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | Yes | 7239 | 0.70 | 0.65 | $4,669 | −$419 | esports |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 10702 | 0.39 | 0.41 | $4,334 | $128 | other |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? | Yes | 3909 | 0.86 | 0.94 | $3,692 | $313 | other |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 4000 | 0.78 | 0.84 | $3,370 | $250 | politics |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5000 | 0.70 | 0.64 | $3,175 | −$325 | politics |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 4604 | 0.30 | 0.50 | $2,316 | $929 | esports |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31? | No | 2306 | 0.79 | 0.95 | $2,198 | $384 | other |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 5836 | 0.36 | 0.36 | $2,130 | $29 | politics |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 2001 | 0.82 | 0.93 | $1,850 | $210 | other |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | Yes | 1905 | 0.38 | 0.95 | $1,812 | $1,082 | geopolitics |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2127 | 0.81 | 0.78 | $1,659 | −$70 | other |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | No | 1608 | 0.61 | 0.84 | $1,351 | $366 | other |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 2113 | 0.63 | 0.57 | $1,215 | −$121 | other |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 5484 | 0.19 | 0.18 | $1,014 | −$44 | macro |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 1370 | 0.50 | 0.69 | $952 | $269 | other |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 1107 | 0.60 | 0.74 | $815 | $146 | other |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 1006 | 0.72 | 0.78 | $785 | $60 | politics |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 1857 | 0.68 | 0.41 | $771 | −$490 | other |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 930 | 0.78 | 0.81 | $758 | $33 | other |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1954 | 0.14 | 0.23 | $440 | $166 | esports |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 354 | 0.53 | 0.96 | $341 | $155 | tech |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 482 | 0.67 | 0.69 | $330 | $6 | other |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 797 | 0.41 | 0.39 | $307 | −$20 | other |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | No | 303 | 0.75 | 0.84 | $256 | $29 | other |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? | No | 272 | 0.62 | 0.91 | $248 | $78 | esports |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 256 | 0.42 | 0.51 | $131 | $23 | other |
| Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 277 | 0.35 | 0.45 | $123 | $26 | esports |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 170m and 180m by October 31? | No | 115 | 0.87 | 1.00 | $115 | $15 | other |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | No | 687 | 0.65 | 0.04 | $24 | −$420 | tech |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31? | Yes | 3620 | 0.38 | 0.00 | $4 | −$1,376 | other |
| Bills vs. Raiders | Raiders | 10000 | 0.43 | 0.00 | $0 | −$4,300 | sports |
| Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5 | Over | 5000 | 0.47 | 0.00 | $0 | −$2,347 | sports |
| Hurricanes vs. Flames | Hurricanes | 3000 | 0.60 | 0.00 | $0 | −$1,800 | sports |
| Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 3m? | Yes | 354 | 0.60 | 0.00 | $0 | −$213 | culture |
| Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | Under | 300 | 0.53 | 0.00 | $0 | −$159 | sports |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22m ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.71 | $165 |
| 22m ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.84 | $714 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $22 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $486 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.92 | $384 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | No | 0.76 | $44 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.64 | $89 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0.86 | $25,800 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.73 | $267 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $1,122 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $855 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $1,061 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $1,277 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $61 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $60 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $166 |
| 13h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $317 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $38 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $8 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $34 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $38 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $38 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $1 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $8 |
| 14h ago | BUY | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | Yes | 0.36 | $1,427 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5 | Over | 0.47 | $2,347 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.35 | $35 |
| 16h ago | SELL | Commanders vs. 49ers | Commanders | 0.04 | $200 |
| 17h ago | BUY | Commanders vs. 49ers | Commanders | 0.24 | $1,200 |
| 17h ago | BUY | Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5 | Under | 0.54 | $2,700 |
| 19h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.73 | $69 |
| 19h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.73 | $3 |
| 19h ago | BUY | Brock Purdy: Passing Yards O/U 249.5 | Under | 0.53 | $159 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.55 | $135 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $17 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $58 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $6 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $208 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $76 |
| 20h ago | BUY | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | Yes | 0.58 | $165 |