Optimus- 78
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-12
Realized PnL
$119,382
Months in profit
19 / 23
Win rate (events)
62%
ROI per market
5.5%
Avg stake
$1,534
Median hold
53.6 d
Volume
$1,897,223
5m crypto share
1%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 988 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-01-01); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 456 geopolitics 168 tech 112 macro 69 crypto 68 sports 53
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24h ago | Optimus- | BUY | Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.68 | $200 | geopolitics |
| 30h ago | Optimus- | SELL | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Yes | 0.25 | $2,512 | tech |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 26000 | 0.50 | 0.80 | $20,787 | $7,787 | esports |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 9697 | 0.88 | 0.92 | $8,872 | $341 | esports |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 26000 | 0.50 | 0.20 | $5,213 | −$7,787 | esports |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 9775 | 0.51 | 0.53 | $5,181 | $203 | tech |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 5000 | 0.88 | 0.92 | $4,575 | $175 | politics |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 6440 | 0.59 | 0.66 | $4,250 | $456 | tech |
| Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? | Yes | 4957 | 0.62 | 0.67 | $3,296 | $214 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 3842 | 0.70 | 0.83 | $3,208 | $509 | crypto |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | No | 2923 | 0.88 | 0.83 | $2,428 | −$143 | tech |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Yes | 10564 | 0.24 | 0.18 | $1,954 | −$588 | tech |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | 2054 | 0.50 | 0.95 | $1,945 | $924 | politics |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 21739 | 0.07 | 0.07 | $1,413 | −$87 | politics |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2000 | 0.64 | 0.65 | $1,290 | $10 | esports |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 1271 | 0.65 | 0.97 | $1,231 | $405 | geopolitics |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4795 | 0.27 | 0.26 | $1,223 | −$61 | geopolitics |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4893 | 0.55 | 0.24 | $1,199 | −$1,507 | other |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1587 | 0.63 | 0.65 | $1,024 | $24 | politics |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1200 | 0.71 | 0.73 | $882 | $24 | politics |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? | No | 910 | 0.57 | 0.93 | $846 | $326 | crypto |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 31867 | 0.03 | 0.03 | $844 | $29 | politics |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Yes | 3605 | 0.27 | 0.23 | $811 | −$146 | esports |
| Will Congress override any veto in 2026? | No | 874 | 0.78 | 0.90 | $787 | $105 | other |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter release an album in 2026? | No | 901 | 0.79 | 0.86 | $779 | $70 | culture |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 944 | 0.47 | 0.77 | $723 | $276 | crypto |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | No | 803 | 0.53 | 0.89 | $710 | $285 | other |
| Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? | Yes | 810 | 0.88 | 0.86 | $701 | −$12 | culture |
| Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | No | 707 | 0.61 | 0.90 | $633 | $203 | other |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 833 | 0.60 | 0.72 | $604 | $104 | politics |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 597 | 0.91 | 0.99 | $591 | $48 | esports |
| FDA approves Retatrutide this year? | No | 568 | 0.72 | 0.97 | $554 | $143 | other |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | No | 640 | 0.52 | 0.85 | $544 | $209 | geopolitics |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 1000 | 0.35 | 0.51 | $505 | $155 | esports |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 1865 | 0.30 | 0.24 | $448 | −$116 | politics |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 500 | 0.67 | 0.89 | $444 | $108 | other |
| Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7000 | 0.08 | 0.06 | $441 | −$119 | other |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 5006 | 0.26 | 0.09 | $426 | −$896 | tech |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? | No | 432 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $421 | $2 | macro |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31? | No | 632 | 0.53 | 0.61 | $389 | $54 | other |
| Will US annex any territory in 2026? | No | 400 | 0.89 | 0.96 | $386 | $30 | other |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 2400 | 0.26 | 0.15 | $372 | −$246 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h ago | BUY | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | Yes | 0.29 | $58 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | Yes | 0.29 | $6 |
| 5h ago | BUY | US imports Russian diesel by November 30? | Yes | 0.29 | $400 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.91 | $910 |
| 6h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.07 | $1 |
| 6h ago | BUY | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.07 | $25 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $7 |
| 6h ago | SELL | Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $116 |
| 17h ago | BUY | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | No | 0.22 | $330 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | No | 0.68 | $200 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.64 | $1,280 |
| 24h ago | BUY | Will Trump rename an ocean by December 31, 2027? | No | 0.73 | $191 |
| 30h ago | SELL | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Yes | 0.21 | $525 |
| 30h ago | SELL | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Yes | 0.25 | $2,512 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $467 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $13 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $25 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $55 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $63 |
| 43h ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $8 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.63 | $1,000 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 0.91 | $3,000 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.55 | $3,000 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | Yes | 0.25 | $1,000 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 0.05 | $1 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 0.05 | $1 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 0.05 | $2 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T? | Yes | 0.05 | $0 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m? | No | 0.84 | $151 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m? | No | 0.84 | $143 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m? | No | 0.84 | $55 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m? | No | 0.84 | $71 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? | No | 0.25 | $180 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 0.63 | $435 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.87 | $2 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.87 | $90 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.87 | $17 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 0.03 | $815 |
| 4d ago | BUY | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 0.02 | $0 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | No | 0.58 | $348 |