elmcap2 83
0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2023-04
Realized PnL
$2,105,753
Months in profit
31 / 36
Win rate (events)
87%
ROI per market
0.4%
Avg stake
$177,678
Median hold
16.0 d
Volume
$282,346,609
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 1000 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-02-23); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
sports 295 other 253 geopolitics 228 crypto 99 macro 83 tech 18
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11h ago | elmcap2 | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.98 | $204 | politics |
| 12h ago | elmcap2 | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $97 | politics |
| 12h ago | elmcap2 | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $2,910 | other |
Open positions (98)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 4000000 | 0.50 | 0.80 | $3,198,000 | $1,198,000 | esports |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 4000000 | 0.50 | 0.20 | $802,000 | −$1,198,000 | esports |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 387288 | 0.96 | 0.96 | $370,828 | $723 | other |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 358303 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $341,821 | $9,889 | politics |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | No | 211187 | 0.99 | 0.99 | $210,025 | $1,662 | other |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | Yes | 208222 | 0.97 | 0.99 | $206,244 | $4,945 | esports |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 208824 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $203,290 | $960 | other |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 199111 | 0.88 | 0.98 | $194,432 | $18,249 | other |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 150000 | 1.00 | 1.00 | $149,475 | $125 | macro |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | No | 123312 | 0.91 | 0.98 | $120,600 | $7,861 | other |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 77039 | 0.96 | 0.97 | $74,690 | $495 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | No | 51717 | 0.99 | 1.00 | $51,588 | $131 | macro |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 44664 | 0.97 | 0.98 | $43,681 | $360 | geopolitics |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 42125 | 0.91 | 0.98 | $41,198 | $3,015 | geopolitics |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | No | 34678 | 0.88 | 0.94 | $32,424 | $2,014 | politics |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | No | 30301 | 0.99 | 1.00 | $30,195 | $310 | geopolitics |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | 29133 | 0.95 | 0.96 | $28,099 | $549 | other |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 35000 | 0.86 | 0.77 | $26,967 | −$3,047 | esports |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 26030 | 0.97 | 0.96 | $25,080 | −$103 | esports |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | No | 23266 | 0.90 | 0.98 | $22,859 | $1,917 | other |
| GTA VI released by October 31? | No | 21476 | 0.98 | 1.00 | $21,465 | $349 | other |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 24518 | 0.89 | 0.86 | $21,208 | −$603 | other |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? | No | 17100 | 0.56 | 0.92 | $15,647 | $5,998 | crypto |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 15683 | 0.87 | 0.94 | $14,664 | $1,034 | crypto |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 14129 | 0.93 | 0.96 | $13,578 | $506 | geopolitics |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? | No | 12170 | 0.90 | 0.98 | $11,939 | $935 | other |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | No | 12323 | 0.94 | 0.96 | $11,873 | $254 | other |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | Yes | 11909 | 0.95 | 0.95 | $11,325 | −$4 | politics |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | No | 9000 | 0.92 | 0.97 | $8,762 | $512 | other |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | No | 9090 | 0.93 | 0.96 | $8,690 | $191 | geopolitics |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | No | 8410 | 0.92 | 0.97 | $8,128 | $401 | other |
| Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027? | No | 6501 | 0.93 | 0.96 | $6,254 | $198 | other |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? | No | 5986 | 0.97 | 0.99 | $5,951 | $134 | politics |
| Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6288 | 0.89 | 0.88 | $5,508 | −$109 | crypto |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? | No | 5596 | 0.92 | 0.97 | $5,454 | $305 | crypto |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 5631 | 0.95 | 0.95 | $5,330 | $1 | other |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 4887 | 0.92 | 0.95 | $4,643 | $139 | crypto |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 5000 | 0.85 | 0.93 | $4,625 | $395 | other |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? | No | 4016 | 0.86 | 0.97 | $3,910 | $474 | crypto |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? | No | 3793 | 0.91 | 0.98 | $3,702 | $232 | other |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37m ago | SELL | Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $33 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $7,433 |
| 3h ago | BUY | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 0.94 | $1,880 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.95 | $383 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $282 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $0 |
| 5h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $48 |
| 6h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $59 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $122 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.94 | $19 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $1 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $110 |
| 9h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $78 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.92 | $139 |
| 10h ago | BUY | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.92 | $56 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $886 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $266 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $203 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $365 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $2 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election? | Yes | 0.93 | $930 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.98 | $204 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.98 | $143 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Alabama Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.98 | $93 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $0 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.95 | $1,386 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $9 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.96 | $38 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $936 |
| 11h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $35 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $17 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $1 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $192 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $527 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $233 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $22,573 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? | Yes | 0.97 | $97 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election? | Yes | 0.94 | $1,001 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.95 | $2,910 |
| 12h ago | BUY | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $107 |