aff3 81
0xe52c0a1327a12edc7bd54ea6f37ce00a4ca96924 · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-05
Realized PnL
$265,614
Months in profit
14 / 17
Win rate (events)
79%
ROI per market
2.3%
Avg stake
$39,315
Median hold
12.8 d
Volume
$12,172,454
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 275 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2025-06-02); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 109 geopolitics 86 esports 33 sports 19 politics 13 macro 8
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No trades captured yet. The feed fills up as tracked wallets trade. | |||||||
Open positions (15)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 278150 | 0.84 | 0.94 | $262,852 | $29,236 | other |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 218945 | 0.93 | 0.95 | $209,093 | $5,583 | geopolitics |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 56866 | 0.88 | 0.92 | $52,032 | $1,803 | esports |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 23510 | 0.85 | 0.85 | $20,101 | $118 | geopolitics |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 18447 | 0.96 | 0.97 | $17,930 | $261 | politics |
| Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | No | 14070 | 0.93 | 0.98 | $13,746 | $723 | other |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | No | 7030 | 0.85 | 0.99 | $6,963 | $1,005 | other |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 3655 | 0.85 | 0.78 | $2,832 | −$274 | esports |
| Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026? | No | 2824 | 0.92 | 0.96 | $2,724 | $126 | other |
| Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | No | 1764 | 0.96 | 0.97 | $1,706 | $12 | politics |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 1989 | 0.90 | 0.85 | $1,701 | −$90 | politics |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1010 | 0.97 | 0.97 | $981 | $4 | geopolitics |
| Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | Yes | 471 | 0.96 | 0.94 | $443 | −$10 | other |
| Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | No | 166 | 0.86 | 0.92 | $153 | $10 | other |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50 | 0.53 | 0.65 | $32 | $6 | esports |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | BUY | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 0.97 | $977 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $143,066 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.85 | $19,984 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $8 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $73,888 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $2 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $3 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $2 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $1 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $4 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $2 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $1 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $13 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $19 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $1 |
| 4d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $2 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $2 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $1,246 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $391 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $2,472 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $285 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $190 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $6 |
| 5d ago | SELL | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.95 | $27,725 |
| 5d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $155 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $11 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $47 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $6 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $363 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $6 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $941 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $78 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $1 |
| 6d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $1,880 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $9 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $7 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $169 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $716 |
| 7d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $949 |
| 8d ago | BUY | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | No | 0.94 | $13 |