Contentious-Dinnerdate 84
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2025-09
Realized PnL
$101,585
Months in profit
13 / 14
Win rate (events)
67%
ROI per market
7.4%
Avg stake
$1,623
Median hold
22.9 d
Volume
$1,411,862
5m crypto share
0%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 998 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2025-10-31); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
tech 444 other 363 geopolitics 71 macro 49 crypto 49 politics 11
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19h ago | Contentious-Dinnerdate | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.41 | $907 | other |
| 25h ago | Contentious-Dinnerdate | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.80 | $2,400 | other |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 9045 | 0.61 | 0.84 | $7,643 | $2,127 | crypto |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 7838 | 0.64 | 0.81 | $6,384 | $1,379 | other |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 7454 | 0.49 | 0.61 | $4,584 | $909 | macro |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 3511 | 0.87 | 0.93 | $3,265 | $211 | other |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 7039 | 0.29 | 0.41 | $2,851 | $800 | other |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 2703 | 0.31 | 0.97 | $2,610 | $1,766 | tech |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3918 | 0.63 | 0.59 | $2,331 | −$124 | macro |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31? | No | 2347 | 0.98 | 0.98 | $2,307 | $18 | tech |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 2623 | 0.69 | 0.81 | $2,138 | $322 | other |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 8907 | 0.29 | 0.21 | $1,915 | −$641 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 17162 | 0.14 | 0.11 | $1,888 | −$507 | crypto |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2686 | 0.72 | 0.67 | $1,800 | −$146 | tech |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19527 | 0.14 | 0.09 | $1,767 | −$911 | esports |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 3445 | 0.65 | 0.51 | $1,740 | −$486 | other |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 1990 | 0.78 | 0.83 | $1,662 | $112 | crypto |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1674 | 0.79 | 0.98 | $1,633 | $303 | other |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15656 | 0.07 | 0.10 | $1,566 | $522 | esports |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1641 | 0.66 | 0.90 | $1,469 | $380 | tech |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 1664 | 0.76 | 0.81 | $1,356 | $99 | other |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 2452 | 0.33 | 0.49 | $1,214 | $398 | other |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 6000 | 0.28 | 0.20 | $1,200 | −$480 | other |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2381 | 0.30 | 0.41 | $987 | $283 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1735 | 0.36 | 0.49 | $850 | $222 | other |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | Yes | 1163 | 0.18 | 0.62 | $721 | $512 | crypto |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 10007 | 0.23 | 0.07 | $700 | −$1,641 | geopolitics |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 5141 | 0.10 | 0.14 | $694 | $159 | other |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes | 4016 | 0.15 | 0.17 | $663 | $65 | other |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 4929 | 0.08 | 0.13 | $616 | $235 | crypto |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Yes | 4262 | 0.17 | 0.13 | $533 | −$206 | tech |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 2000 | 0.48 | 0.26 | $520 | −$440 | macro |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 1323 | 0.72 | 0.33 | $437 | −$512 | other |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1200 | 0.72 | 0.35 | $420 | −$444 | other |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2578 | 0.36 | 0.15 | $400 | −$529 | tech |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | Yes | 1329 | 0.44 | 0.17 | $233 | −$347 | other |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6237 | 0.13 | 0.04 | $225 | −$573 | crypto |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 1067 | 0.25 | 0.14 | $155 | −$108 | macro |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2000 | 0.21 | 0.07 | $150 | −$280 | other |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 24530 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $110 | −$180 | macro |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31? | Yes | 3500 | 0.17 | 0.03 | $107 | −$487 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | Yes | 2483 | 0.06 | 0.04 | $103 | −$37 | macro |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43m ago | BUY | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $9 |
| 43m ago | BUY | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 21, 2026? | No | 0.96 | $217 |
| 76m ago | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.37 | $448 |
| 79m ago | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.48 | $256 |
| 81m ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.69 | $97 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.76 | $1,064 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.42 | $0 |
| 2h ago | BUY | Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.40 | $179 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.73 | $156 |
| 4h ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.73 | $37 |
| 15h ago | BUY | Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.02 | $0 |
| 16h ago | SELL | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 0.67 | $731 |
| 17h ago | BUY | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 0.15 | $105 |
| 18h ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.10 | $535 |
| 19h ago | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.41 | $907 |
| 19h ago | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.46 | $1,085 |
| 21h ago | BUY | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 0.05 | $3 |
| 25h ago | SELL | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 0.67 | $1 |
| 25h ago | BUY | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.28 | $280 |
| 25h ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.49 | $0 |
| 25h ago | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 0.40 | $1,137 |
| 25h ago | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.50 | $688 |
| 25h ago | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.80 | $2,400 |
| 25h ago | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.51 | $153 |
| 26h ago | BUY | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? | Yes | 0.30 | $179 |
| 27h ago | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.72 | $13 |
| 27h ago | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.72 | $23 |
| 27h ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $497 |
| 27h ago | SELL | Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? | Yes | 0.95 | $307 |
| 2d ago | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 0.78 | $312 |
| 3d ago | SELL | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $74 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | Yes | 0.33 | $0 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $11 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $55 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $66 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $73 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $39 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $74 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $18 |
| 3d ago | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $11 |