Contentious-Dinnerdate 84
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da · polymarket.com ↗ · торгует с 2025-09
Реализованная прибыль
$101,585
Месяцев в плюсе
13 / 14
Побед (события)
67%
ROI на рынок
7.4%
Средняя ставка
$1,623
Медианный срок
22.9 д
Объём
$1,411,862
Доля 5-мин. крипто
0%
Процент побед, ROI и фокус посчитаны по 998 последним закрытым рынкам вне крипто (с 2025-10-31); прибыль и месяцы за всё время.
Прибыль по месяцам
Фокус
tech 444 other 363 geopolitics 71 macro 49 crypto 49 politics 11
Сделки, пойманные нашей лентой
| Когда | Кошелёк | Сторона | Рынок | Исход | Цена | Размер | Кат. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 ч назад | Contentious-Dinnerdate | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.41 | $907 | other |
| 24 ч назад | Contentious-Dinnerdate | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.80 | $2,400 | other |
Открытые позиции (100)
| Рынок | Сторона | Акций | Вход | Сейчас | Стоимость | PnL | Кат. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Yes | 9045 | 0.61 | 0.84 | $7,643 | $2,127 | crypto |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 7838 | 0.64 | 0.78 | $6,122 | $1,117 | other |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | Yes | 7454 | 0.49 | 0.61 | $4,584 | $909 | macro |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 3511 | 0.87 | 0.93 | $3,265 | $211 | other |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 7039 | 0.29 | 0.41 | $2,851 | $800 | other |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 2703 | 0.31 | 0.96 | $2,607 | $1,763 | tech |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3918 | 0.63 | 0.59 | $2,331 | −$124 | macro |
| Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Google by December 31? | No | 2347 | 0.98 | 0.98 | $2,307 | $18 | tech |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 2623 | 0.69 | 0.81 | $2,138 | $322 | other |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 8907 | 0.29 | 0.22 | $1,960 | −$597 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 17162 | 0.14 | 0.11 | $1,888 | −$507 | crypto |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 2686 | 0.72 | 0.66 | $1,773 | −$173 | tech |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19527 | 0.14 | 0.09 | $1,757 | −$921 | esports |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 3445 | 0.65 | 0.51 | $1,740 | −$486 | other |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | No | 1990 | 0.78 | 0.83 | $1,662 | $112 | crypto |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1674 | 0.79 | 0.97 | $1,629 | $299 | other |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 15656 | 0.07 | 0.10 | $1,558 | $515 | esports |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1641 | 0.66 | 0.90 | $1,469 | $380 | tech |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 1664 | 0.76 | 0.81 | $1,340 | $83 | other |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 2452 | 0.33 | 0.53 | $1,300 | $484 | other |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 6000 | 0.28 | 0.18 | $1,110 | −$570 | other |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2381 | 0.30 | 0.41 | $986 | $282 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1735 | 0.36 | 0.49 | $850 | $222 | other |
| Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026? | Yes | 1163 | 0.18 | 0.62 | $721 | $512 | crypto |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 10007 | 0.23 | 0.07 | $700 | −$1,641 | geopolitics |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 5141 | 0.10 | 0.14 | $694 | $159 | other |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes | 4016 | 0.15 | 0.17 | $663 | $65 | other |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | No | 4929 | 0.08 | 0.13 | $616 | $235 | crypto |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1200 | 0.72 | 0.46 | $552 | −$312 | other |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Yes | 4262 | 0.17 | 0.13 | $533 | −$206 | tech |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 2000 | 0.48 | 0.26 | $520 | −$440 | macro |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 1323 | 0.72 | 0.32 | $417 | −$532 | other |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2578 | 0.36 | 0.15 | $400 | −$529 | tech |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | Yes | 1329 | 0.44 | 0.27 | $352 | −$228 | other |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6237 | 0.13 | 0.04 | $225 | −$573 | crypto |
| Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 1067 | 0.25 | 0.14 | $155 | −$108 | macro |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2000 | 0.21 | 0.07 | $140 | −$290 | other |
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 24530 | 0.01 | 0.00 | $110 | −$180 | macro |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by October 31? | Yes | 3500 | 0.17 | 0.03 | $107 | −$487 | crypto |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | Yes | 2483 | 0.06 | 0.04 | $104 | −$36 | macro |
Последняя активность
| Когда | Сторона | Рынок | Исход | Цена | Размер |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 мин назад | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.37 | $448 |
| 25 мин назад | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.48 | $256 |
| 26 мин назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.69 | $97 |
| 79 мин назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.76 | $1,064 |
| 2 ч назад | BUY | Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.42 | $0 |
| 2 ч назад | BUY | Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027? | No | 0.40 | $179 |
| 3 ч назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.73 | $156 |
| 3 ч назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.73 | $37 |
| 14 ч назад | BUY | Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.02 | $0 |
| 15 ч назад | SELL | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 0.67 | $731 |
| 16 ч назад | BUY | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 0.15 | $105 |
| 17 ч назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.10 | $535 |
| 18 ч назад | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.41 | $907 |
| 18 ч назад | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.46 | $1,085 |
| 20 ч назад | BUY | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 0.05 | $3 |
| 24 ч назад | SELL | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 0.67 | $1 |
| 24 ч назад | BUY | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.28 | $280 |
| 24 ч назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | No | 0.49 | $0 |
| 24 ч назад | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 0.40 | $1,137 |
| 24 ч назад | BUY | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 0.50 | $688 |
| 24 ч назад | SELL | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.80 | $2,400 |
| 24 ч назад | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.51 | $153 |
| 25 ч назад | BUY | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? | Yes | 0.30 | $179 |
| 26 ч назад | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.72 | $13 |
| 26 ч назад | BUY | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.72 | $23 |
| 26 ч назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 0.91 | $497 |
| 26 ч назад | SELL | Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? | Yes | 0.95 | $307 |
| 2 д назад | BUY | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 0.78 | $312 |
| 2 д назад | SELL | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $74 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | Yes | 0.33 | $0 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $11 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $55 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $66 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $73 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $39 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $74 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $18 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.70 | $11 |
| 3 д назад | SELL | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $3 |
| 3 д назад | BUY | Will DeepSeek IPO by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 0.13 | $0 |