PaddyAlpha 74
0x9ad091ca2e8f1bd69f27662edcb49dceeaa5bf3d · polymarket.com ↗ · trading since 2024-11
Realized PnL
$53,468
Months in profit
18 / 23
Win rate (events)
66%
ROI per market
0.6%
Avg stake
$3,502
Median hold
101.5 d
Volume
$15,330,083
5m crypto share
1%
Win rate, ROI and focus are computed on the 990 most recent closed non-crypto markets (since 2026-05-01); realized PnL and months are all-time.
Monthly realized PnL
Focus
other 401 geopolitics 295 crypto 133 esports 54 tech 32 politics 32
Trades captured by our feed
| When | Wallet | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44m ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.14 | $29 | geopolitics |
| 2h ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.28 | $102 | geopolitics |
| 3h ago | PaddyAlpha | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.30 | $133 | geopolitics |
Open positions (100)
| Market | Side | Shares | Avg | Now | Value | PnL | Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | 3589 | 0.96 | 0.95 | $3,424 | −$5 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6410 | 0.50 | 0.40 | $2,567 | −$649 | geopolitics |
| Will Ali G be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | 1895 | 0.94 | 0.99 | $1,867 | $91 | other |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 1722 | 0.98 | 0.99 | $1,701 | $5 | other |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 1708 | 0.97 | 0.96 | $1,633 | −$21 | other |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | No | 1688 | 0.90 | 0.94 | $1,591 | $68 | other |
| Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? | No | 1836 | 0.85 | 0.67 | $1,231 | −$330 | other |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 1598 | 0.71 | 0.72 | $1,152 | $24 | other |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 5337 | 0.26 | 0.21 | $1,147 | −$217 | geopolitics |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 6490 | 0.12 | 0.13 | $811 | $21 | geopolitics |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? | No | 2049 | 0.39 | 0.39 | $804 | $14 | other |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 3013 | 0.26 | 0.26 | $768 | −$5 | geopolitics |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | No | 1633 | 0.69 | 0.46 | $751 | −$380 | other |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2557 | 0.27 | 0.27 | $678 | −$20 | geopolitics |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | Yes | 2205 | 0.35 | 0.28 | $629 | −$146 | other |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 6970 | 0.08 | 0.09 | $624 | $100 | esports |
| LA28 Olympics run as scheduled? | No | 3638 | 0.10 | 0.14 | $527 | $146 | other |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 4347 | 0.17 | 0.12 | $500 | −$252 | geopolitics |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes | 2009 | 0.21 | 0.24 | $492 | $69 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3094 | 0.13 | 0.15 | $480 | $87 | geopolitics |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes | 7700 | 0.08 | 0.05 | $354 | −$271 | geopolitics |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4418 | 0.13 | 0.07 | $331 | −$244 | macro |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2288 | 0.18 | 0.14 | $320 | −$88 | other |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 3710 | 0.15 | 0.09 | $315 | −$228 | tech |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 3153 | 0.16 | 0.10 | $300 | −$193 | geopolitics |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 2945 | 0.13 | 0.10 | $284 | −$91 | geopolitics |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4103 | 0.08 | 0.06 | $246 | −$89 | geopolitics |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 13624 | 0.02 | 0.02 | $232 | −$35 | geopolitics |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2202 | 0.10 | 0.10 | $231 | $0 | geopolitics |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 2521 | 0.18 | 0.09 | $214 | −$240 | geopolitics |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | Yes | 1839 | 0.28 | 0.10 | $193 | −$326 | other |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2065 | 0.08 | 0.09 | $187 | $19 | esports |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 3589 | 0.07 | 0.04 | $158 | −$80 | other |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2202 | 0.08 | 0.07 | $154 | −$23 | crypto |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 3263 | 0.11 | 0.04 | $134 | −$231 | geopolitics |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3017 | 0.08 | 0.04 | $107 | −$127 | geopolitics |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 2271 | 0.08 | 0.04 | $102 | −$71 | geopolitics |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | Yes | 2866 | 0.06 | 0.03 | $97 | −$62 | other |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | Yes | 2083 | 0.06 | 0.04 | $86 | −$48 | politics |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 2549 | 0.05 | 0.03 | $74 | −$65 | geopolitics |
Recent activity
| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $0 |
| 5m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $14 |
| 5m ago | SELL | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 0.90 | $180 |
| 7m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $23 |
| 8m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $37 |
| 10m ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $40 |
| 10m ago | BUY | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $40 |
| 11m ago | BUY | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31? | Yes | 0.06 | $5 |
| 11m ago | BUY | Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31? | Yes | 0.07 | $0 |
| 13m ago | SELL | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $24 |
| 14m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $25 |
| 15m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $23 |
| 15m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.26 | $65 |
| 16m ago | BUY | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $25 |
| 17m ago | BUY | Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 0.83 | $6 |
| 18m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.13 | $26 |
| 21m ago | BUY | Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0.47 | $4 |
| 23m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $24 |
| 24m ago | BUY | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.70 | $4 |
| 27m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $7 |
| 29m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $0 |
| 31m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $25 |
| 31m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $30 |
| 32m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $5 |
| 33m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.09 | $2 |
| 33m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | 0.72 | $144 |
| 33m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.42 | $85 |
| 33m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.09 | $27 |
| 33m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.10 | $28 |
| 33m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $13 |
| 33m ago | BUY | Will Portugal win the UEFA EURO 2028? | Yes | 0.08 | $1 |
| 34m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.11 | $10 |
| 34m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.12 | $25 |
| 35m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.43 | $90 |
| 36m ago | SELL | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.44 | $164 |
| 39m ago | SELL | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.29 | $55 |
| 42m ago | SELL | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Yes | 0.72 | $36 |
| 44m ago | BUY | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.14 | $29 |
| 48m ago | SELL | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.29 | $3 |
| 50m ago | SELL | Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1? | No | 0.72 | $144 |